Paula Christen

Thesis title:

The role of mathematical modelling for knowledge production in infectious disease outbreak responses: An evaluation of the extent of its application and the interaction between model producers and consumers (a CASE project with the GAVI Alliance and The Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium)


Decisions about how to best respond to global health issues are increasingly being informed by results from mathematical modelling and economic analysis. The methods are complex and often viewed as a ‘black box’ by policy-makers who need to consider the findings from modelling against other types of evidence and data, as well as wider health system contraints and political and economic realities when making policy decisions. Evaluating how well producers of models articulate their findings, the limitations of their analyses, and how policy-makers understand these is important. Here, Paula will assess this in collaboration with the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium (VIMC). Established in 2016, the VIMC bring together over 20 epidemiological modelling groups from all over the world, all with a focus on vaccine impact modelling. The Consortium was established in response to an identified need by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. This project aims to work in close collaboration with VIMC, governments, donors and other stakeholders to assess how the global vaccine model outputs are translated at the national level.

First supervisor:

Lesong Conteh

CASE partner:

The GAVI Alliance & VIMC


1 – Health Practices, Innovation & Implementation